Best case scenario: Tourists can come back from around August. This is an optimistic scenario based on current conditions, which are close to fulfilling the requirements for phase 2.
Middle Case Scenario: Tourists can come back from around October. In this scenario there is no summer season, but the number of guests from previous years is obtained in the last part of the year.
Worst Case Scenario: Tourists can come back from around January 2021. The worst case scenario is likely if there is a secondary wave of infection in the autumn.
The scenarios are affected by the spread of infection in Greenland and Denmark, the restrictions of the different phases and the opening of the borders of the Kingdom of Denmark. They do not account for the opening of departures from tourists’ home countries. The best case scenario is that the current positive development of COVID-19 continues. In this case, tourists will have the possibility to return to Greenland at some point in August. Even this scenario has important provisos, as it is assumed that, before this, sales can be mobilised and that tourists can and want to travel.
The middle case scenario is that the positive development of COVID-19 infection continues, but that there will be ups and downs throughout. Therefore, tourists will first be able to return in October, and the summer season will be lost. However, there will be the possibility to develop products for tourists for the end of the year, when revenue can perhaps be made.
The worst case scenario is that there comes a secondary wave of infection in the autumn. In this case, it is expected that tourism can first return at the end of 2020, and that tourism in 2020 will be lost.
Therefore, Visit Greenland foresees a summer season largely without tourists – regardless of which scenario we face.
Recommendation: holiday in your own country
This also means that each holiday that is taken in Greenland, instead of abroad, will contribute to the survival of the tourism industry. Both because it creates business here and now, and because new products can make Greenland even more attractive and robust on a global scale after the COVID-19 crisis.
Visit Greenland supports the staycation movement with a new branding project – Nunarput Nuan. This involves a whole new website, which acts as inspiration to travel domestically in Greenland, as well as a number of campaigns on social media. The campaign is expected to be able to be launched at the end of May.
Sources and background
Visit Greenland’s ‘best case’ to ‘worst case’ model is based on tendencies in data from https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning, where you can see the development of the spread of the Covid-19 infection in Denmark, which is crucial for the timing of the Government’s phase 1-2-3 reopening model.
The numbers for the loss of revenue in the Greenlandic tourism industry take departure in the numbers from Grønlandsbanken and the Copenhagen Economics report ‘COVID-19 – what it means for tourism and GDP in Greenland’, where there is estimated to be a cumulative loss of approximately 450 million, if tourism is completely lost in 2020.
Contact for more info:
Director Julia Pars on 342831 or firstname.lastname@example.org.